2025 Housing Market Predictions: What Mobility Teams Need to Know

It’s no secret the housing market has kept us all on our toes the past few years and 2025 isn’t offering much relief just yet. If you’re managing employee relocations, especially BVOs or GBOs, you’re probably asking: When will home prices drop? What does rising inventory really mean for my program? Are we headed for a crash or just a correction?

Let’s break it down by what today’s housing forecast means for your relocation policies, and what you should be thinking about as you support home sale and home purchase transactions for your employees this year.

Housing Prices

Home prices are still climbing, but the rocket boosters are off. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index reports just a 2.7% annual increase, the slowest pace in nearly two years. The days of double-digit appreciation are (finally) behind us, replaced by more localized, deliberate growth.

What this means for relocation:

• Home Sale: Employees relocating from high-demand markets may still see strong equity returns, but don’t expect bidding wars everywhere. Slower price growth could reduce sale price expectations and introduce longer timelines
• Home Purchase: First-time buyers or mid-level transferees may face less panic-buying competition, but affordability challenges remain. Rising property taxes and insurance costs could still stretch relocation budgets.

Inventory

Here’s the split::

• Home purchase inventory is improving.
• Home sale inventory is still lagging.

Existing housing stock is up 20.3% year-over-year, with unsold inventory at a 4.6-month supply, the highest in five years, according to Forbes. That’s good news for employees moving into high-supply markets, where options are increasing and competition is softening.

However, employees selling a home, especially in more constrained markets like the Midwest or Northeast, may still face limited buyer pools and longer days on market. The “lock-in effect” (owners holding onto low mortgage rates) is easing but not gone. Inventory levels are still below pre-pandemic norms.

Regional Trends Matter More Than Ever

Market dynamics are no longer one-size-fits-all. Cities like Austin, Tampa, and San Antonio are seeing rising inventory and slowing demand, creating better conditions for buyers. On the other hand, areas like Buffalo, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh, where prices never surged dramatically, still face inventory pressure and high competition.

Mobility teams should evaluate markets case by case. Employees relocating from high-demand areas may benefit from strong equity positions, while those buying in softening markets could gain negotiation power, especially under the $300K mark in select Midwest metros.

Here are some key stats (Forbes):

• $422,800: National median resale home price in May; up 1.3% YoY and a record for the month
• 4.6 months: Current supply of existing homes for sale; up from 4.4 months in April
• 6.5–7%: We’ve been riding the mortgage-rate roller coaster for months, mostly lingering between 6.5–7%. This has kept many buyers on the sidelines—and kept affordability tight. A drop in rates could heat things up fast—but also tighten supply if demand outpaces available homes.
• 82.8%: Homeowners with mortgage rates under 6%, down from a high of 92.7% in 2022
• $2,200+/month for median home: Assume a home price of $422,800; a buyer with 20% down at 6.89% rate pays approx. $2,222/month in principal and interest

Final Takeaway

The 2025 housing market is a mixed bag—challenging, but not impossible. Mobility programs will need to stay nimble. Flexibility, regional insight, and strong home sale/purchase support are critical to help employees make smart, timely decisions.

At NuCompass, we guide clients through these market shifts with custom strategies that keep relocation moving, no matter the conditions.

About NuCompass

NuCompass Mobility is a veteran-owned, independent mobility management company, offering a comprehensive range of global mobility and U.S. domestic relocation services. For more information about how NuCompass and our CoPilot® or CoPilot Express™ platforms can support your global mobility needs, visit www.nucompass.com/solutions/technology today!